England Premier League
Stamford Bridge
Chelsea
W W L D W L
2 - 0
xG 2.11 - 1.35
Manchester United
D L L L W D

Mathematical Predictions: Chelsea vs Manchester United

TOTAL GOALS
Over 2.5
Probability 67.13% Lost
MATCH RESULT
Home Win
Won

Historical Prediction Track Records

Chelsea team crest Chelsea Past Prediction Accuracy

Historical prediction accuracy and match outcomes for Chelsea
Date Fixture 1X2 O/U 2.5 FT
08 Nov 26 @ Sunderland 2 O2.5 1-0
31 Oct 26 vs Manchester United 1 O2.5 2-0
24 Oct 26 vs Tottenham 1 O2.5 0-2
17 Oct 26 @ Everton 1 O2.5 0-2
10 Oct 26 vs Bournemouth X O2.5 5-1

Manchester United team crest Manchester United Past Prediction Accuracy

Historical prediction accuracy and match outcomes for Manchester United
Date Fixture 1X2 O/U 2.5 FT
08 Nov 26 vs Aston Villa 1 O2.5 4-4
03 Nov 26 vs AS Roma X O2.5 3-2
31 Oct 26 @ Chelsea 1 O2.5 2-0
25 Oct 26 vs Bournemouth X O2.5 0-3
21 Oct 26 @ Como 1 U2.5 4-1

Bookmaker Odds

Bookmaker
1
X
2
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
1xBet
1 2.05
X 3.90
2 3.68
O 2.5 1.64
U 2.5 2.46
Betano
1 2.00
X 3.85
2 3.75
O 2.5 1.62
U 2.5 2.35
Dafabet
1 1.84
X 3.95
2 4.10
O 2.5 0.00
U 2.5 0.00
Updated 2026-11-05 21:06:56

Chelsea vs Manchester United

H2H, Match Stats & Analysis
England Premier League
Stamford Bridge
In their previous 33 head-to-head matches, Chelsea scored an average of 1.18 goals per match, compared to Manchester United 1.33 goals.
Over their last 10 matches, Chelsea scored an average of 3.17 and conceded 1.83, whereas Manchester United scored 0.83 and conceded 2.00.

What are the expected goals (xG) predicted in Chelsea vs Manchester United match?

Based on the H2H and Form statistics, the expected goals (xG) for this match are 2.11 for Chelsea and 1.35 for Manchester United. Mathematical prediction based on the algorithm is Over 2.5 with Poisson distribution probability of 67.13%.

H2H - Chelsea vs. Manchester United

31 Oct 26
Chelsea
2 - 0
(HT 0-0)
Manchester United
18 Apr 26
Chelsea
0 - 1
(HT 0-1)
Manchester United
20 Sep 25
Manchester United
2 - 1
(HT 2-0)
Chelsea
16 May 25
Chelsea
1 - 0
(HT 0-0)
Manchester United
03 Nov 24
Manchester United
1 - 1
(HT 0-0)
Chelsea
04 Apr 24
Chelsea
4 - 3
(HT 2-2)
Manchester United
06 Dec 23
Manchester United
2 - 1
(HT 1-1)
Chelsea
25 May 23
Manchester United
4 - 1
(HT 2-0)
Chelsea

Team Form (Last 6)

Home Crest Chelsea

10 Oct vs Bournemouth 5-1
W
17 Oct @ Everton 0-2
W
24 Oct vs Tottenham 0-2
L
28 Oct @ Liverpool 1-1
D
31 Oct vs Manchester United 2-0
W
08 Nov @ Sunderland 1-0
L

Away Crest Manchester United

18 Oct @ Leeds 1-1
D
21 Oct @ Como 4-1
L
25 Oct vs Bournemouth 0-3
L
31 Oct @ Chelsea 2-0
L
03 Nov vs AS Roma 3-2
W
08 Nov vs Aston Villa 4-4
D

Poisson Distribution Algorithm

We utilize a Poisson distribution model to evaluate goal probability (such as the 2.5 threshold) in professional fixtures. By assessing expected offensive and defensive ratings for both home and away sides, our engine calculates precise percentage outcomes for your match predictions.