England Premier League
Etihad Stadium
Manchester City
W L D L W L
0 - 1
xG 2.44 - 1.57
Brighton
D L D W W W

Mathematical Predictions: Manchester City vs Brighton

TOTAL GOALS
Over 2.5
Probability 76.47% Lost
MATCH RESULT
Draw
Lost

Historical Prediction Track Records

Manchester City team crest Manchester City Past Prediction Accuracy

Historical prediction accuracy and match outcomes for Manchester City
Date Fixture 1X2 O/U 2.5 FT
07 Nov 26 @ Nottingham Forest 2 U2.5 3-1
04 Nov 26 @ RB Leipzig X O2.5 2-3
31 Oct 26 vs Brighton X O2.5 0-1
24 Oct 26 @ Aston Villa 2 O2.5 2-1
20 Oct 26 vs AEK Athens FC X O2.5 5-1

Brighton team crest Brighton Past Prediction Accuracy

Historical prediction accuracy and match outcomes for Brighton
Date Fixture 1X2 O/U 2.5 FT
08 Nov 26 vs Brentford 1 O2.5 2-0
05 Nov 26 @ Getafe X U2.5 0-1
31 Oct 26 @ Manchester City X O2.5 0-1
25 Oct 26 @ Liverpool X O2.5 2-0
22 Oct 26 @ FK Jablonec X U2.5 0-0

Bookmaker Odds

Bookmaker
1
X
2
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
1xBet
1 1.70
X 4.56
2 4.81
O 2.5 1.44
U 2.5 2.78
Betano
1 1.72
X 4.45
2 4.50
O 2.5 1.47
U 2.5 2.75
Dafabet
1 1.70
X 4.40
2 4.50
O 2.5 0.00
U 2.5 0.00
Updated 2026-11-05 21:06:56

Manchester City vs Brighton

H2H, Match Stats & Analysis
England Premier League
Etihad Stadium
In their previous 20 head-to-head matches, Manchester City scored an average of 2.35 goals per match, compared to Brighton 0.95 goals.
Over their last 10 matches, Manchester City scored an average of 3.50 and conceded 1.67, whereas Brighton scored 2.17 and conceded 1.33.

What are the expected goals (xG) predicted in Manchester City vs Brighton match?

Based on the H2H and Form statistics, the expected goals (xG) for this match are 2.44 for Manchester City and 1.57 for Brighton. Mathematical prediction based on the algorithm is Over 2.5 with Poisson distribution probability of 76.47%.

H2H - Manchester City vs. Brighton

31 Oct 26
Manchester City
0 - 1
(HT 0-1)
Brighton
28 Oct 26
Manchester City
2 - 2
(HT 1-1)
Brighton
07 Jan 26
Manchester City
1 - 1
(HT 1-0)
Brighton
31 Aug 25
Brighton
2 - 1
(HT 0-1)
Manchester City
15 Mar 25
Manchester City
2 - 2
(HT 2-1)
Brighton
09 Nov 24
Brighton
2 - 1
(HT 0-1)
Manchester City
25 Apr 24
Brighton
0 - 4
(HT 0-3)
Manchester City
21 Oct 23
Manchester City
2 - 1
(HT 2-0)
Brighton

Team Form (Last 6)

Home Crest Manchester City

20 Oct vs AEK Athens FC 5-1
W
24 Oct @ Aston Villa 2-1
L
28 Oct vs Brighton 2-2
D
31 Oct vs Brighton 0-1
L
04 Nov @ RB Leipzig 2-3
W
07 Nov @ Nottingham Forest 3-1
L

Away Crest Brighton

22 Oct @ FK Jablonec 0-0
D
25 Oct @ Liverpool 2-0
L
28 Oct @ Manchester City 2-2
D
31 Oct @ Manchester City 0-1
W
05 Nov @ Getafe 0-1
W
08 Nov vs Brentford 2-0
W

Poisson Distribution Algorithm

We utilize a Poisson distribution model to evaluate goal probability (such as the 2.5 threshold) in professional fixtures. By assessing expected offensive and defensive ratings for both home and away sides, our engine calculates precise percentage outcomes for your match predictions.