Marseille
W
L
W
W
W
W
2-0
(xG) 1.65 - 1.49
Toulouse
W
D
W
D
L
W

Mathematical Predictions: Marseille vs Toulouse

TOTAL GOALS
Over 2.5
Probability 60.77% Lost
MATCH RESULT
Home Win
Won

Historical Prediction Track Records

Marseille team crest Marseille Past Prediction Accuracy

Historical prediction accuracy and match outcomes for Marseille
Date Fixture 1X2 O/U 2.5 FT
08 Nov 26 @ Lens 2 O2.5 1-2
05 Nov 26 @ Bayer Leverkusen 1 O2.5 0-1
01 Nov 26 vs Toulouse 1 O2.5 2-0
25 Oct 26 vs Le Havre 1 O2.5 4-3
22 Oct 26 @ Sturm Graz 1 U2.5 1-0

Toulouse team crest Toulouse Past Prediction Accuracy

Historical prediction accuracy and match outcomes for Toulouse
Date Fixture 1X2 O/U 2.5 FT
06 Nov 26 vs Strasbourg X O2.5 3-1
01 Nov 26 @ Marseille 1 O2.5 2-0
25 Oct 26 vs Estac Troyes X U2.5 0-0
16 Oct 26 @ Le Mans 1 O2.5 0-3
10 Oct 26 @ Monaco 1 O2.5 2-2

Bookmaker Odds

Bookmaker
1
X
2
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
1xBet
1 1.95
X 4.16
2 3.82
O 2.5 1.54
U 2.5 2.48
Betano
1 1.98
X 3.85
2 3.55
O 2.5 1.57
U 2.5 2.50
Dafabet
1 1.95
X 3.95
2 3.65
O 2.5 0.00
U 2.5 0.00
Updated 2026-10-30 07:39:12

Marseille vs Toulouse

H2H, Match Stats & Analysis
France Ligue 1
TBA
In their previous 28 head-to-head matches, Marseille scored an average of 1.79 goals per match, compared to Toulouse 0.79 goals.
Over their last 10 matches, Marseille scored an average of 2.00 and conceded 1.83, whereas Toulouse scored 1.83 and conceded 1.17.

What are the expected goals (xG) predicted in Marseille vs Toulouse match?

Based on the H2H and Form statistics, the expected goals (xG) for this match are 1.65 for Marseille and 1.49 for Toulouse. Mathematical prediction based on the algorithm is Over 2.5 with Poisson distribution probability of 60.77%.

H2H - Marseille vs. Toulouse

01 Nov 26
Marseille
2 - 0
(HT 2-0)
Toulouse
07 Mar 26
Toulouse
0 - 1
(HT 0-1)
Marseille
04 Mar 26
Marseille
2 - 2
(HT 1-1)
Toulouse
29 Nov 25
Marseille
2 - 2
(HT 0-1)
Toulouse
06 Apr 25
Marseille
3 - 2
(HT 1-1)
Toulouse
31 Aug 24
Toulouse
1 - 3
(HT 0-2)
Marseille
21 Apr 24
Toulouse
2 - 2
(HT 1-1)
Marseille
17 Sep 23
Marseille
0 - 0
(HT 0-0)
Toulouse

Team Form (Last 6)

Home Crest Marseille

18 Oct @ Angers 2-5
W
22 Oct @ Sturm Graz 1-0
L
25 Oct vs LE Havre 4-3
W
01 Nov vs Toulouse 2-0
W
05 Nov @ Bayer Leverkusen 0-1
W
08 Nov @ Lens 1-2
W

Away Crest Toulouse

19 Sep vs LE Havre 3-2
W
10 Oct @ Monaco 2-2
D
16 Oct @ Le Mans 0-3
W
25 Oct vs Estac Troyes 0-0
D
01 Nov @ Marseille 2-0
L
06 Nov vs Strasbourg 3-1
W

Poisson Distribution Algorithm

We utilize a Poisson distribution model to evaluate goal probability (such as the 2.5 threshold) in professional fixtures. By assessing expected offensive and defensive ratings for both home and away sides, our engine calculates precise percentage outcomes for your match predictions.