Ajax
L
W
W
W
W
W
2-0
(xG) 1.72 - 1.61
Atalanta
L
L
D
D
L
D
Mathematical Predictions
TOTAL GOALS
Over 2.5
Probability 64.72% Lost
MATCH RESULT
Draw
Lost

Bookmaker Odds

Bookmaker
1
X
2
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
1xBet
1 2.16
X 3.84
2 3.20
O 2.5 1.60
U 2.5 2.43
Updated 2026-10-22 06:34:15

Ajax vs Atalanta

H2H, Match Stats & Analysis
World UEFA Europa Conference League
Johan Cruijff Arena
In their previous 3 head-to-head matches, Ajax scored an average of 1.33 goals per match, compared to Atalanta 1.00 goals.
Over their last 10 matches, Ajax scored an average of 2.67 and conceded 2.00, whereas Atalanta scored 1.33 and conceded 1.50.

What are the expected goals (xG) predicted in Ajax vs Atalanta match?

Based on the H2H and Form statistics, the expected goals (xG) for this match are 1.72 for Ajax and 1.61 for Atalanta. Mathematical prediction based on the algorithm is Over 2.5 with Poisson distribution probability of 64.72%.

H2H - Ajax vs. Atalanta

22-10-2026
Ajax
2 - 0
(HT 0-0)
Atalanta
09-12-2020
Ajax
0 - 1
(HT 0-0)
Atalanta
27-10-2020
Atalanta
2 - 2
(HT 0-2)
Ajax

Team Form (Last 6)

Home Crest Ajax

15.10 @ HNK Hajduk Split 2-1
L
18.10 @ Groningen 2-5
W
22.10 vs Atalanta 2-0
W
25.10 @ Sparta Rotterdam 1-2
W
31.10 vs AZ Alkmaar 1-0
W
05.11 @ FC Midtjylland 1-6
W

Away Crest Atalanta

18.10 @ AC Milan 3-2
L
22.10 @ Ajax 2-0
L
25.10 vs Frosinone 4-4
D
29.10 @ Fiorentina 2-2
D
02.11 vs Parma 0-3
L
05.11 vs Kairat Almaty 1-1
D

Poisson Distribution Algorithm

We utilize a Poisson distribution model to evaluate goal probability (such as the 2.5 threshold) in professional fixtures. By assessing expected offensive and defensive ratings for both home and away sides, our engine calculates precise percentage outcomes for your match predictions.