Bahia
L
W
L
D
W
L
-
(xG) 1.58 - 1.16
Atletico-MG
D
W
W
L
L
L
Mathematical Predictions
TOTAL GOALS
Over 2.5
Probability 51.53% Pending
MATCH RESULT
Home Win
Pending

Bahia vs Atletico-MG

H2H, Match Stats & Analysis
Brazil Serie A
Arena Fonte Nova
In their previous 7 head-to-head matches, Bahia scored an average of 1.57 goals per match, compared to Atletico-MG 1.14 goals.
Over their last 10 matches, Bahia scored an average of 1.50 and conceded 1.33, whereas Atletico-MG scored 1.00 and conceded 1.67.

What are the expected goals (xG) predicted in Bahia vs Atletico-MG match?

Based on the H2H and Form statistics, the expected goals (xG) for this match are 1.58 for Bahia and 1.16 for Atletico-MG. Mathematical prediction based on the algorithm is Over 2.5 with Poisson distribution probability of 51.53%.

H2H - Bahia vs. Atletico-MG

03-12-2026
Bahia
-
(HT -)
Atletico-MG
22-07-2026
Atletico-MG
1 - 1
(HT 1-0)
Bahia
06-11-2025
Atletico-MG
3 - 0
(HT 0-0)
Bahia
13-07-2025
Bahia
2 - 1
(HT 0-0)
Atletico-MG
15-09-2024
Bahia
3 - 0
(HT 0-0)
Atletico-MG
02-06-2024
Atletico-MG
1 - 1
(HT 0-0)
Bahia
07-12-2023
Bahia
4 - 1
(HT 2-1)
Atletico-MG
13-08-2023
Atletico-MG
1 - 0
(HT 0-0)
Bahia

Team Form (Last 6)

Home Crest Bahia

09.10 @ Palmeiras 1-0
L
12.10 vs Mirassol 1-0
W
18.10 vs Flamengo 0-3
L
25.10 @ Santos 1-1
D
29.10 vs Sao Paulo 3-2
W
06.11 @ Cruzeiro 3-2
L

Away Crest Atletico-MG

09.10 @ Atletico Paranaense 2-2
D
11.10 vs Santos 2-1
W
17.10 vs Coritiba 1-0
W
27.10 @ Flamengo 3-2
L
29.10 vs Cruzeiro 0-1
L
05.11 @ Botafogo 1-0
L

Poisson Distribution Algorithm

We utilize a Poisson distribution model to evaluate goal probability (such as the 2.5 threshold) in professional fixtures. By assessing expected offensive and defensive ratings for both home and away sides, our engine calculates precise percentage outcomes for your match predictions.