Football Prediction: Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo

Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo

H2H, Stats & Predictions

Venue: Estádio São Januário

1.53
D D L W L L

SCHEDULED -

0.84

W W W D L L

Kick Off: 22-11-2025 16:00 h. Mathematical Predictions: Under 2.5 Home WIN

Vasco DA Gama and Sao Paulo face each other in the Brazil Serie A match on Saturday 22nd of November 2025. In the last five head-to-head matches the home team scored average of 2.00 goals, while the away team scored average of 0.50 goals. See the full head-to-head statistics in the table below.

In the last 10 matches Vasco DA Gama have scored an average of 1.45 goals and conceded average of 1.45 goals while Sao Paulo scored 1.01 goals and conceded 1.15 goals.

Poisson distribution algorithm

We use Poisson distribution algorithm that expresses the probability of a given number of goals (2.5) occurring in football matches. The formula takes the expected average number of goals for home and away team, and calculates percentage probability of the prediction on the website.

Most probable outcome for Vasco DA Gama vs Sao Paulo is:

Under 2.5 goals with a probability of 57.75%

Head to Head Record - Vasco DA Gama vs. Sao Paulo

Date	Competition	Match
22-11-2025	Brazil Serie A 2025	Vasco DA Gama	- (HT -)	Sao Paulo
13-06-2025	Brazil Serie A 2025	Sao Paulo	1-3 (HT 0-2)	Vasco DA Gama
17-10-2024	Brazil Serie A 2024	Sao Paulo	3-0 (HT 1-0)	Vasco DA Gama
23-06-2024	Brazil Serie A 2024	Vasco DA Gama	4-1 (HT 2-1)	Sao Paulo
07-10-2023	Brazil Serie A 2023	Vasco DA Gama	0-0 (HT 0-0)	Sao Paulo
20-05-2023	Brazil Serie A 2023	Sao Paulo	4-2 (HT 2-1)	Vasco DA Gama

Competition		Date
Brazil Serie A		22-11-2025
Vasco DA Gama	- (HT -)	Sao Paulo
Brazil Serie A		13-06-2025
Sao Paulo	1-3 (HT 0-2)	Vasco DA Gama
Brazil Serie A		17-10-2024
Sao Paulo	3-0 (HT 1-0)	Vasco DA Gama
Brazil Serie A		23-06-2024
Vasco DA Gama	4-1 (HT 2-1)	Sao Paulo
Brazil Serie A		07-10-2023
Vasco DA Gama	0-0 (HT 0-0)	Sao Paulo
Brazil Serie A		20-05-2023
Sao Paulo	4-2 (HT 2-1)	Vasco DA Gama