Football Prediction: Atletico-MG vs Bahia

Atletico-MG vs Bahia

H2H, Stats & Predictions

Venue: Arena MRV

1.30
L L L W W D

SCHEDULED -

0.83

W D W W W L

Kick Off: 29-11-2025 16:00 h. Mathematical Predictions: Under 2.5 DRAW

Atletico-MG and Bahia face each other in the Brazil Serie A match on Saturday 29th of November 2025. In the last five head-to-head matches the home team scored average of 1.00 goals, while the away team scored average of 0.50 goals. See the full head-to-head statistics in the table below.

In the last 10 matches Atletico-MG have scored an average of 1.51 goals and conceded average of 1.51 goals while Bahia scored 1.00 goals and conceded 1.39 goals.

Poisson distribution algorithm

We use Poisson distribution algorithm that expresses the probability of a given number of goals (2.5) occurring in football matches. The formula takes the expected average number of goals for home and away team, and calculates percentage probability of the prediction on the website.

Most probable outcome for Atletico-MG vs Bahia is:

Under 2.5 goals with a probability of 64.09%

Head to Head Record - Atletico-MG vs. Bahia

Date	Competition	Match
29-11-2025	Brazil Serie A 2025	Atletico-MG	- (HT -)	Bahia
13-07-2025	Brazil Serie A 2025	Bahia	2-1 (HT 0-0)	Atletico-MG
15-09-2024	Brazil Serie A 2024	Bahia	3-0 (HT 0-0)	Atletico-MG
02-06-2024	Brazil Serie A 2024	Atletico-MG	1-1 (HT 0-0)	Bahia
07-12-2023	Brazil Serie A 2023	Bahia	4-1 (HT 2-1)	Atletico-MG
13-08-2023	Brazil Serie A 2023	Atletico-MG	1-0 (HT 0-0)	Bahia

Competition		Date
Brazil Serie A		29-11-2025
Atletico-MG	- (HT -)	Bahia
Brazil Serie A		13-07-2025
Bahia	2-1 (HT 0-0)	Atletico-MG
Brazil Serie A		15-09-2024
Bahia	3-0 (HT 0-0)	Atletico-MG
Brazil Serie A		02-06-2024
Atletico-MG	1-1 (HT 0-0)	Bahia
Brazil Serie A		07-12-2023
Bahia	4-1 (HT 2-1)	Atletico-MG
Brazil Serie A		13-08-2023
Atletico-MG	1-0 (HT 0-0)	Bahia