Football Prediction: Southampton vs Derby

Southampton vs Derby

H2H, Stats & Predictions

Venue: St Marys Stadium

2.29
D W L D W W

SCHEDULED -

0.84

D L D L D L

Kick Off: 11-04-2026 17:00 h. Mathematical Predictions: Over 2.5 Home WIN

Southampton and Derby face each other in the England Championship match on Saturday 11th of April 2026. In the last five head-to-head matches the home team scored average of 4.00 goals, while the away team scored average of 0.00 goals. See the full head-to-head statistics in the table below.

In the last 10 matches Southampton have scored an average of 1.50 goals and conceded average of 1.50 goals while Derby scored 1.17 goals and conceded 1.37 goals.

Poisson distribution algorithm

We use Poisson distribution algorithm that expresses the probability of a given number of goals (2.5) occurring in football matches. The formula takes the expected average number of goals for home and away team, and calculates percentage probability of the prediction on the website.

Most probable outcome for Southampton vs Derby is:

Over 2.5 goals with a probability of 60.66%

Head to Head Record - Southampton vs. Derby

Date	Competition	Match
11-04-2026	England Championship 2025	Southampton	- (HT -)	Derby
04-10-2025	England Championship 2025	Derby	- (HT -)	Southampton
18-02-2012	England Championship 2011	Southampton	4-0 (HT 1-0)	Derby
15-10-2011	England Championship 2011	Derby	1-1 (HT 1-0)	Southampton

Competition		Date
England Championship		11-04-2026
Southampton	- (HT -)	Derby
England Championship		04-10-2025
Derby	- (HT -)	Southampton
England Championship		18-02-2012
Southampton	4-0 (HT 1-0)	Derby
England Championship		15-10-2011
Derby	1-1 (HT 1-0)	Southampton