Football Prediction: Montpellier vs Bastia

Montpellier vs Bastia

H2H, Stats & Predictions

Venue: Stade de la Mosson-Mondial 98

1.78
L L L D L L

SCHEDULED -

0.96

W D L L W D

Kick Off: 19-09-2025 17:00 h. Mathematical Predictions: Over 2.5 Home WIN

Montpellier and Bastia face each other in the France Ligue 2 match on Friday 19th of September 2025. In the last five head-to-head matches the home team scored average of 2.20 goals, while the away team scored average of 0.80 goals. See the full head-to-head statistics in the table below.

In the last 10 matches Montpellier have scored an average of 1.44 goals and conceded average of 1.44 goals while Bastia scored 0.88 goals and conceded 1.71 goals.

Poisson distribution algorithm

We use Poisson distribution algorithm that expresses the probability of a given number of goals (2.5) occurring in football matches. The formula takes the expected average number of goals for home and away team, and calculates percentage probability of the prediction on the website.

Most probable outcome for Montpellier vs Bastia is:

Over 2.5 goals with a probability of 51.72%

Head to Head Record - Montpellier vs. Bastia

Date	Competition	Match
23-01-2026	France Ligue 2 2025	Bastia	- (HT -)	Montpellier
19-09-2025	France Ligue 2 2025	Montpellier	- (HT -)	Bastia
04-02-2017	France Ligue 1 2016	Montpellier	2-1 (HT 1-1)	SC Bastia
19-11-2016	France Ligue 1 2016	SC Bastia	1-1 (HT 1-0)	Montpellier
16-01-2016	France Ligue 1 2015	Bastia	1-0 (HT 0-0)	Montpellier
24-10-2015	France Ligue 1 2015	Montpellier	2-0 (HT 0-0)	Bastia
04-04-2015	France Ligue 1 2014	Montpellier	3-1 (HT 0-1)	Bastia
08-11-2014	France Ligue 1 2014	Bastia	2-0 (HT 2-0)	Montpellier
10-05-2014	France Ligue 1 2013	Montpellier	0-2 (HT 0-1)	Bastia
21-12-2013	France Ligue 1 2013	Bastia	0-0 (HT 0-0)	Montpellier
11-05-2013	France Ligue 1 2012	Bastia	3-1 (HT 2-1)	Montpellier
15-12-2012	France Ligue 1 2012	Montpellier	4-0 (HT 1-0)	Bastia

Competition		Date
France Ligue 2		23-01-2026
Bastia	- (HT -)	Montpellier
France Ligue 2		19-09-2025
Montpellier	- (HT -)	Bastia
France Ligue 1		04-02-2017
Montpellier	2-1 (HT 1-1)	SC Bastia
France Ligue 1		19-11-2016
SC Bastia	1-1 (HT 1-0)	Montpellier
France Ligue 1		16-01-2016
Bastia	1-0 (HT 0-0)	Montpellier
France Ligue 1		24-10-2015
Montpellier	2-0 (HT 0-0)	Bastia
France Ligue 1		04-04-2015
Montpellier	3-1 (HT 0-1)	Bastia
France Ligue 1		08-11-2014
Bastia	2-0 (HT 2-0)	Montpellier
France Ligue 1		10-05-2014
Montpellier	0-2 (HT 0-1)	Bastia
France Ligue 1		21-12-2013
Bastia	0-0 (HT 0-0)	Montpellier
France Ligue 1		11-05-2013
Bastia	3-1 (HT 2-1)	Montpellier
France Ligue 1		15-12-2012
Montpellier	4-0 (HT 1-0)	Bastia