Football Prediction: Erzgebirge Aue vs MSV Duisburg

Erzgebirge Aue vs MSV Duisburg

H2H, Stats & Predictions

Venue: Erzgebirgsstadion

1.96
L W L D D L

SCHEDULED -

1.75

W W W W L D

Kick Off: 09-05-2026 15:00 h. Mathematical Predictions: Over 2.5 Home WIN

Erzgebirge Aue and MSV Duisburg face each other in the Germany 3. Liga match on Saturday 9th of May 2026. In the last five head-to-head matches the home team scored average of 1.00 goals, while the away team scored average of 1.00 goals. See the full head-to-head statistics in the table below.

In the last 10 matches Erzgebirge Aue have scored an average of 1.49 goals and conceded average of 1.49 goals while MSV Duisburg scored 1.05 goals and conceded 1.90 goals.

Poisson distribution algorithm

We use Poisson distribution algorithm that expresses the probability of a given number of goals (2.5) occurring in football matches. The formula takes the expected average number of goals for home and away team, and calculates percentage probability of the prediction on the website.

Most probable outcome for Erzgebirge Aue vs MSV Duisburg is:

Over 2.5 goals with a probability of 71.59%

Head to Head Record - Erzgebirge Aue vs. MSV Duisburg

Date	Competition	Match
09-05-2026	Germany 3. Liga 2025	Erzgebirge Aue	- (HT -)	MSV Duisburg
13-12-2025	Germany 3. Liga 2025	MSV Duisburg	- (HT -)	Erzgebirge Aue
12-05-2024	Germany 3. Liga 2023	MSV Duisburg	2-2 (HT 0-1)	Erzgebirge AUE
09-12-2023	Germany 3. Liga 2023	Erzgebirge AUE	1-1 (HT 1-0)	MSV Duisburg

Competition		Date
Germany 3. Liga		09-05-2026
Erzgebirge Aue	- (HT -)	MSV Duisburg
Germany 3. Liga		13-12-2025
MSV Duisburg	- (HT -)	Erzgebirge Aue
Germany 3. Liga		12-05-2024
MSV Duisburg	2-2 (HT 0-1)	Erzgebirge AUE
Germany 3. Liga		09-12-2023
Erzgebirge AUE	1-1 (HT 1-0)	MSV Duisburg