Football Prediction: Rio Ave vs Nacional

Rio Ave vs Nacional

H2H, Stats & Predictions

Venue: Estadio dos Arcos

1.63
D D W L L D

SCHEDULED -

1.02

L D L D L W

Kick Off: 17-08-2025 18:00 h. Mathematical Predictions: Under 2.5 Home WIN

Rio Ave and Nacional face each other in the Portugal Primeira Liga match on Sunday 17th of August 2025. In the last five head-to-head matches the home team scored average of 2.00 goals, while the away team scored average of 1.00 goals. See the full head-to-head statistics in the table below.

In the last 10 matches Rio Ave have scored an average of 1.53 goals and conceded average of 1.53 goals while Nacional scored 0.70 goals and conceded 1.35 goals.

Poisson distribution algorithm

We use Poisson distribution algorithm that expresses the probability of a given number of goals (2.5) occurring in football matches. The formula takes the expected average number of goals for home and away team, and calculates percentage probability of the prediction on the website.

Most probable outcome for Rio Ave vs Nacional is:

Under 2.5 goals with a probability of 50.64%

Head to Head Record - Rio Ave vs. Nacional

Date	Competition	Match
25-01-2026	Portugal Primeira Liga 2025	Nacional	- (HT -)	Rio Ave
17-08-2025	Portugal Primeira Liga 2025	Rio Ave	- (HT -)	Nacional
10-05-2025	Portugal Primeira Liga 2024	Nacional	3-3 (HT 0-3)	Rio Ave
29-12-2024	Portugal Primeira Liga 2024	Rio Ave	2-1 (HT 1-1)	Nacional

Competition		Date
Portugal Primeira Liga		25-01-2026
Nacional	- (HT -)	Rio Ave
Portugal Primeira Liga		17-08-2025
Rio Ave	- (HT -)	Nacional
Portugal Primeira Liga		10-05-2025
Nacional	3-3 (HT 0-3)	Rio Ave
Portugal Primeira Liga		29-12-2024
Rio Ave	2-1 (HT 1-1)	Nacional