Football Prediction: Arouca vs Casa Pia

Arouca vs Casa Pia

H2H, Stats & Predictions

Venue: Aluca Municipal Stadium

0.93
W D D L W D

SCHEDULED -

1.08

L W D L D L

Kick Off: 14-09-2025 17:00 h. Mathematical Predictions: Under 2.5 DRAW

Arouca and Casa Pia face each other in the Portugal Primeira Liga match on Sunday 14th of September 2025. In the last five head-to-head matches the home team scored average of 0.00 goals, while the away team scored average of 0.50 goals. See the full head-to-head statistics in the table below.

In the last 10 matches Arouca have scored an average of 1.24 goals and conceded average of 1.24 goals while Casa Pia scored 1.41 goals and conceded 1.54 goals.

Poisson distribution algorithm

We use Poisson distribution algorithm that expresses the probability of a given number of goals (2.5) occurring in football matches. The formula takes the expected average number of goals for home and away team, and calculates percentage probability of the prediction on the website.

Most probable outcome for Arouca vs Casa Pia is:

Under 2.5 goals with a probability of 67.55%

Head to Head Record - Arouca vs. Casa Pia

Date	Competition	Match
15-02-2026	Portugal Primeira Liga 2025	Casa Pia	- (HT -)	Arouca
14-09-2025	Portugal Primeira Liga 2025	Arouca	- (HT -)	Casa Pia
04-05-2025	Portugal Primeira Liga 2024	Arouca	0-0 (HT 0-0)	Casa Pia
20-12-2024	Portugal Primeira Liga 2024	Casa Pia	3-1 (HT 2-0)	Arouca
18-02-2024	Portugal Primeira Liga 2023	Casa Pia	1-0 (HT 0-0)	Arouca
17-09-2023	Portugal Primeira Liga 2023	Arouca	0-1 (HT 0-0)	Casa Pia

Competition		Date
Portugal Primeira Liga		15-02-2026
Casa Pia	- (HT -)	Arouca
Portugal Primeira Liga		14-09-2025
Arouca	- (HT -)	Casa Pia
Portugal Primeira Liga		04-05-2025
Arouca	0-0 (HT 0-0)	Casa Pia
Portugal Primeira Liga		20-12-2024
Casa Pia	3-1 (HT 2-0)	Arouca
Portugal Primeira Liga		18-02-2024
Casa Pia	1-0 (HT 0-0)	Arouca
Portugal Primeira Liga		17-09-2023
Arouca	0-1 (HT 0-0)	Casa Pia