Football Prediction: Tondela vs Estrela

Tondela vs Estrela

H2H, Stats & Predictions

Venue: Joocadoso Stadium

1.20
L L L L D W

SCHEDULED -

1.09

L D L L L W

Kick Off: 21-09-2025 17:00 h. Mathematical Predictions: Under 2.5 DRAW

Tondela and Estrela face each other in the Portugal Primeira Liga match on Sunday 21st of September 2025. In the last five head-to-head matches the home team scored average of 0.00 goals, while the away team scored average of 0.00 goals. See the full head-to-head statistics in the table below.

In the last 10 matches Tondela have scored an average of 1.00 goals and conceded average of 1.00 goals while Estrela scored 0.54 goals and conceded 1.59 goals.

Poisson distribution algorithm

We use Poisson distribution algorithm that expresses the probability of a given number of goals (2.5) occurring in football matches. The formula takes the expected average number of goals for home and away team, and calculates percentage probability of the prediction on the website.

Most probable outcome for Tondela vs Estrela is:

Under 2.5 goals with a probability of 80.15%

Head to Head Record - Tondela vs. Estrela

Date	Competition	Match
22-02-2026	Portugal Primeira Liga 2025	Estrela	- (HT -)	Tondela
21-09-2025	Portugal Primeira Liga 2025	Tondela	- (HT -)	Estrela

Competition		Date
Portugal Primeira Liga		22-02-2026
Estrela	- (HT -)	Tondela
Portugal Primeira Liga		21-09-2025
Tondela	- (HT -)	Estrela