Football Prediction: Arouca vs Moreirense

Arouca vs Moreirense

H2H, Stats & Predictions

Venue: Aluca Municipal Stadium

1.06
D D L W W D

SCHEDULED -

0.96

L W W W W D

Kick Off: 02-11-2025 21:15 h. Mathematical Predictions: Under 2.5 DRAW

Arouca and Moreirense face each other in the Portugal Primeira Liga match on Sunday 2nd of November 2025. In the last five head-to-head matches the home team scored average of 0.50 goals, while the away team scored average of 0.50 goals. See the full head-to-head statistics in the table below.

In the last 10 matches Arouca have scored an average of 1.33 goals and conceded average of 1.33 goals while Moreirense scored 1.03 goals and conceded 1.33 goals.

Poisson distribution algorithm

We use Poisson distribution algorithm that expresses the probability of a given number of goals (2.5) occurring in football matches. The formula takes the expected average number of goals for home and away team, and calculates percentage probability of the prediction on the website.

Most probable outcome for Arouca vs Moreirense is:

Under 2.5 goals with a probability of 67.21%

Head to Head Record - Arouca vs. Moreirense

Date	Competition	Match
22-03-2026	Portugal Primeira Liga 2025	Moreirense	- (HT -)	Arouca
02-11-2025	Portugal Primeira Liga 2025	Arouca	- (HT -)	Moreirense
24-01-2025	Portugal Primeira Liga 2024	Arouca	1-0 (HT 0-0)	Moreirense
18-08-2024	Portugal Primeira Liga 2024	Moreirense	3-1 (HT 2-1)	Arouca
17-03-2024	Portugal Primeira Liga 2023	Moreirense	1-0 (HT 1-0)	Arouca
27-10-2023	Portugal Primeira Liga 2023	Arouca	0-1 (HT 0-1)	Moreirense

Competition		Date
Portugal Primeira Liga		22-03-2026
Moreirense	- (HT -)	Arouca
Portugal Primeira Liga		02-11-2025
Arouca	- (HT -)	Moreirense
Portugal Primeira Liga		24-01-2025
Arouca	1-0 (HT 0-0)	Moreirense
Portugal Primeira Liga		18-08-2024
Moreirense	3-1 (HT 2-1)	Arouca
Portugal Primeira Liga		17-03-2024
Moreirense	1-0 (HT 1-0)	Arouca
Portugal Primeira Liga		27-10-2023
Arouca	0-1 (HT 0-1)	Moreirense