Football Prediction: Estrela vs Nacional

Estrela vs Nacional

H2H, Stats & Predictions

Venue: Estadio Jose Gomes

1.98
L D L L L W

SCHEDULED -

1.20

D L L D L D

Kick Off: 09-11-2025 16:00 h. Mathematical Predictions: Under 2.5 Home WIN

Estrela and Nacional face each other in the Portugal Primeira Liga match on Sunday 9th of November 2025. In the last five head-to-head matches the home team scored average of 2.00 goals, while the away team scored average of 0.00 goals. See the full head-to-head statistics in the table below.

In the last 10 matches Estrela have scored an average of 1.14 goals and conceded average of 1.14 goals while Nacional scored 0.71 goals and conceded 1.33 goals.

Poisson distribution algorithm

We use Poisson distribution algorithm that expresses the probability of a given number of goals (2.5) occurring in football matches. The formula takes the expected average number of goals for home and away team, and calculates percentage probability of the prediction on the website.

Most probable outcome for Estrela vs Nacional is:

Under 2.5 goals with a probability of 60.63%

Head to Head Record - Estrela vs. Nacional

Date	Competition	Match
04-04-2026	Portugal Primeira Liga 2025	Nacional	- (HT -)	Estrela
09-11-2025	Portugal Primeira Liga 2025	Estrela	- (HT -)	Nacional
06-04-2025	Portugal Primeira Liga 2024	Nacional	0-1 (HT 0-0)	Estrela
10-11-2024	Portugal Primeira Liga 2024	Estrela	2-0 (HT 0-0)	Nacional

Competition		Date
Portugal Primeira Liga		04-04-2026
Nacional	- (HT -)	Estrela
Portugal Primeira Liga		09-11-2025
Estrela	- (HT -)	Nacional
Portugal Primeira Liga		06-04-2025
Nacional	0-1 (HT 0-0)	Estrela
Portugal Primeira Liga		10-11-2024
Estrela	2-0 (HT 0-0)	Nacional