Estrela vs Moreirense

H2H, Stats & Predictions

Venue: Estadio Jose Gomes

1.27
W D L D D L

SCHEDULED -

1.24

W L W L W W

Kick Off: 21-12-2025 18:00 h. Mathematical Predictions: Under 2.5 and DRAW

Estrela and Moreirense face each other in the Portugal Primeira Liga match on Sunday 21st of December 2025. The two teams have met 4 times in head-to-head matches. The home team scored average of 1.25 goals, while the away team scored average of 1.25 goals. See the full head-to-head statistics in the table below.

In the last 10 matches Estrela have scored an average of 1.18 goals and conceded average of 1.18 goals while Moreirense scored 1.00 goals and conceded 1.38 goals.

Poisson distribution algorithm

We use Poisson distribution algorithm that expresses the probability of a given number of goals (2.5) occurring in football matches. The formula takes the expected average number of goals for home and away team, and calculates percentage probability of the prediction on the website.

Most probable outcome for Estrela vs Moreirense is:

Under 2.5 goals with a probability of 54.10%

Head to Head Record - Estrela vs. Moreirense

Date	Competition	Match
03-05-2026	Portugal Primeira Liga 2025	Moreirense	- (HT -)	Estrela
21-12-2025	Portugal Primeira Liga 2025	Estrela	- (HT -)	Moreirense
02-03-2025	Portugal Primeira Liga 2024	Moreirense	1-1 (HT 0-0)	Estrela
28-09-2024	Portugal Primeira Liga 2024	Estrela	2-1 (HT 2-0)	Moreirense
07-04-2024	Portugal Primeira Liga 2023	Moreirense	2-2 (HT 2-0)	Estrela
11-11-2023	Portugal Primeira Liga 2023	Estrela	0-1 (HT 0-0)	Moreirense

Competition		Date
Portugal Primeira Liga		03-05-2026
Moreirense	- (HT -)	Estrela
Portugal Primeira Liga		21-12-2025
Estrela	- (HT -)	Moreirense
Portugal Primeira Liga		02-03-2025
Moreirense	1-1 (HT 0-0)	Estrela
Portugal Primeira Liga		28-09-2024
Estrela	2-1 (HT 2-0)	Moreirense
Portugal Primeira Liga		07-04-2024
Moreirense	2-2 (HT 2-0)	Estrela
Portugal Primeira Liga		11-11-2023
Estrela	0-1 (HT 0-0)	Moreirense

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