Guimaraes vs Estrela

H2H, Stats & Predictions

Venue: Estadio D. Afonso Henriques

1.79
D W D L W L

SCHEDULED -

0.65

W D L D D L

Kick Off: 15-02-2026 18:00 h. Mathematical Predictions: Under 2.5 and Home WIN

Guimaraes and Estrela face each other in the Portugal Primeira Liga match on Sunday 15th of February 2026. The two teams have met 4 times in head-to-head matches. The home team scored average of 2.00 goals, while the away team scored average of 0.50 goals. See the full head-to-head statistics in the table below.

In the last 10 matches Guimaraes have scored an average of 1.84 goals and conceded average of 1.84 goals while Estrela scored 0.51 goals and conceded 1.51 goals.

Poisson distribution algorithm

We use Poisson distribution algorithm that expresses the probability of a given number of goals (2.5) occurring in football matches. The formula takes the expected average number of goals for home and away team, and calculates percentage probability of the prediction on the website.

Most probable outcome for Guimaraes vs Estrela is:

Under 2.5 goals with a probability of 55.95%

Head to Head Record - Guimaraes vs. Estrela

Date	Competition	Match
15-02-2026	Portugal Primeira Liga 2025	Guimaraes	- (HT -)	Estrela
14-09-2025	Portugal Primeira Liga 2025	Estrela	0-2 (HT 0-1)	Guimaraes
16-03-2025	Portugal Primeira Liga 2024	Guimaraes	2-0 (HT 1-0)	Estrela
27-10-2024	Portugal Primeira Liga 2024	Estrela	2-2 (HT 1-1)	Guimaraes
21-01-2024	Portugal Primeira Liga 2023	Guimaraes	3-0 (HT 1-0)	Estrela
13-08-2023	Portugal Primeira Liga 2023	Estrela	0-1 (HT 0-1)	Guimaraes

Competition		Date
Portugal Primeira Liga		15-02-2026
Guimaraes	- (HT -)	Estrela
Portugal Primeira Liga		14-09-2025
Estrela	0-2 (HT 0-1)	Guimaraes
Portugal Primeira Liga		16-03-2025
Guimaraes	2-0 (HT 1-0)	Estrela
Portugal Primeira Liga		27-10-2024
Estrela	2-2 (HT 1-1)	Guimaraes
Portugal Primeira Liga		21-01-2024
Guimaraes	3-0 (HT 1-0)	Estrela
Portugal Primeira Liga		13-08-2023
Estrela	0-1 (HT 0-1)	Guimaraes

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