Football Prediction: Arouca vs Nacional

Arouca vs Nacional

H2H, Stats & Predictions

Venue: Aluca Municipal Stadium

1.65
L W W D D L

SCHEDULED -

1.15

D L L D L D

Kick Off: 22-02-2026 16:00 h. Mathematical Predictions: Under 2.5 Home WIN

Arouca and Nacional face each other in the Portugal Primeira Liga match on Sunday 22nd of February 2026. In the last five head-to-head matches the home team scored average of 1.00 goals, while the away team scored average of 0.00 goals. See the full head-to-head statistics in the table below.

In the last 10 matches Arouca have scored an average of 1.29 goals and conceded average of 1.29 goals while Nacional scored 0.71 goals and conceded 1.33 goals.

Poisson distribution algorithm

We use Poisson distribution algorithm that expresses the probability of a given number of goals (2.5) occurring in football matches. The formula takes the expected average number of goals for home and away team, and calculates percentage probability of the prediction on the website.

Most probable outcome for Arouca vs Nacional is:

Under 2.5 goals with a probability of 69.32%

Head to Head Record - Arouca vs. Nacional

Date	Competition	Match
22-02-2026	Portugal Primeira Liga 2025	Arouca	- (HT -)	Nacional
21-09-2025	Portugal Primeira Liga 2025	Nacional	- (HT -)	Arouca
01-02-2025	Portugal Primeira Liga 2024	Nacional	1-2 (HT 1-2)	Arouca
25-08-2024	Portugal Primeira Liga 2024	Arouca	1-0 (HT 1-0)	Nacional

Competition		Date
Portugal Primeira Liga		22-02-2026
Arouca	- (HT -)	Nacional
Portugal Primeira Liga		21-09-2025
Nacional	- (HT -)	Arouca
Portugal Primeira Liga		01-02-2025
Nacional	1-2 (HT 1-2)	Arouca
Portugal Primeira Liga		25-08-2024
Arouca	1-0 (HT 1-0)	Nacional