Football Prediction: Moreirense vs Arouca

Moreirense vs Arouca

H2H, Stats & Predictions

Venue: Parque Joaquim de Almeida Freitas

1.61
W W D L D L

SCHEDULED -

1.04

W W D D L W

Kick Off: 22-03-2026 16:00 h. Mathematical Predictions: Under 2.5 Home WIN

Moreirense and Arouca face each other in the Portugal Primeira Liga match on Sunday 22nd of March 2026. In the last five head-to-head matches the home team scored average of 2.00 goals, while the away team scored average of 0.50 goals. See the full head-to-head statistics in the table below.

In the last 10 matches Moreirense have scored an average of 1.28 goals and conceded average of 1.28 goals while Arouca scored 1.47 goals and conceded 1.55 goals.

Poisson distribution algorithm

We use Poisson distribution algorithm that expresses the probability of a given number of goals (2.5) occurring in football matches. The formula takes the expected average number of goals for home and away team, and calculates percentage probability of the prediction on the website.

Most probable outcome for Moreirense vs Arouca is:

Under 2.5 goals with a probability of 50.65%

Head to Head Record - Moreirense vs. Arouca

Date	Competition	Match
22-03-2026	Portugal Primeira Liga 2025	Moreirense	- (HT -)	Arouca
02-11-2025	Portugal Primeira Liga 2025	Arouca	- (HT -)	Moreirense
24-01-2025	Portugal Primeira Liga 2024	Arouca	1-0 (HT 0-0)	Moreirense
18-08-2024	Portugal Primeira Liga 2024	Moreirense	3-1 (HT 2-1)	Arouca
17-03-2024	Portugal Primeira Liga 2023	Moreirense	1-0 (HT 1-0)	Arouca
27-10-2023	Portugal Primeira Liga 2023	Arouca	0-1 (HT 0-1)	Moreirense

Competition		Date
Portugal Primeira Liga		22-03-2026
Moreirense	- (HT -)	Arouca
Portugal Primeira Liga		02-11-2025
Arouca	- (HT -)	Moreirense
Portugal Primeira Liga		24-01-2025
Arouca	1-0 (HT 0-0)	Moreirense
Portugal Primeira Liga		18-08-2024
Moreirense	3-1 (HT 2-1)	Arouca
Portugal Primeira Liga		17-03-2024
Moreirense	1-0 (HT 1-0)	Arouca
Portugal Primeira Liga		27-10-2023
Arouca	0-1 (HT 0-1)	Moreirense