Football Prediction: Arouca vs Estoril

Arouca vs Estoril

H2H, Stats & Predictions

Venue: Aluca Municipal Stadium

2.32
L W W D D L

SCHEDULED -

2.28

L D W D L W

Kick Off: 04-04-2026 17:00 h. Mathematical Predictions: Over 2.5 DRAW

Arouca and Estoril face each other in the Portugal Primeira Liga match on Saturday 4th of April 2026. In the last five head-to-head matches the home team scored average of 2.50 goals, while the away team scored average of 2.00 goals. See the full head-to-head statistics in the table below.

In the last 10 matches Arouca have scored an average of 1.29 goals and conceded average of 1.29 goals while Estoril scored 1.51 goals and conceded 1.97 goals.

Poisson distribution algorithm

We use Poisson distribution algorithm that expresses the probability of a given number of goals (2.5) occurring in football matches. The formula takes the expected average number of goals for home and away team, and calculates percentage probability of the prediction on the website.

Most probable outcome for Arouca vs Estoril is:

Over 2.5 goals with a probability of 67.46%

Head to Head Record - Arouca vs. Estoril

Date	Competition	Match
04-04-2026	Portugal Primeira Liga 2025	Arouca	- (HT -)	Estoril
09-11-2025	Portugal Primeira Liga 2025	Estoril	- (HT -)	Arouca
16-03-2025	Portugal Primeira Liga 2024	Arouca	1-1 (HT 1-0)	Estoril
26-10-2024	Portugal Primeira Liga 2024	Estoril	4-1 (HT 2-1)	Arouca
20-01-2024	Portugal Primeira Liga 2023	Estoril	1-2 (HT 1-2)	Arouca
13-08-2023	Portugal Primeira Liga 2023	Arouca	4-3 (HT 1-1)	Estoril

Competition		Date
Portugal Primeira Liga		04-04-2026
Arouca	- (HT -)	Estoril
Portugal Primeira Liga		09-11-2025
Estoril	- (HT -)	Arouca
Portugal Primeira Liga		16-03-2025
Arouca	1-1 (HT 1-0)	Estoril
Portugal Primeira Liga		26-10-2024
Estoril	4-1 (HT 2-1)	Arouca
Portugal Primeira Liga		20-01-2024
Estoril	1-2 (HT 1-2)	Arouca
Portugal Primeira Liga		13-08-2023
Arouca	4-3 (HT 1-1)	Estoril