Football Prediction: Arouca vs Estrela

Arouca vs Estrela

H2H, Stats & Predictions

Venue: Aluca Municipal Stadium

1.57
L W W D D L

SCHEDULED -

1.19

L D L L L W

Kick Off: 19-04-2026 17:00 h. Mathematical Predictions: Under 2.5 Home WIN

Arouca and Estrela face each other in the Portugal Primeira Liga match on Sunday 19th of April 2026. In the last five head-to-head matches the home team scored average of 0.50 goals, while the away team scored average of 0.00 goals. See the full head-to-head statistics in the table below.

In the last 10 matches Arouca have scored an average of 1.29 goals and conceded average of 1.29 goals while Estrela scored 0.54 goals and conceded 1.59 goals.

Poisson distribution algorithm

We use Poisson distribution algorithm that expresses the probability of a given number of goals (2.5) occurring in football matches. The formula takes the expected average number of goals for home and away team, and calculates percentage probability of the prediction on the website.

Most probable outcome for Arouca vs Estrela is:

Under 2.5 goals with a probability of 70.10%

Head to Head Record - Arouca vs. Estrela

Date	Competition	Match
19-04-2026	Portugal Primeira Liga 2025	Arouca	- (HT -)	Estrela
07-12-2025	Portugal Primeira Liga 2025	Estrela	- (HT -)	Arouca
19-04-2025	Portugal Primeira Liga 2024	Arouca	1-0 (HT 0-0)	Estrela
09-12-2024	Portugal Primeira Liga 2024	Estrela	2-1 (HT 0-1)	Arouca
05-05-2024	Portugal Primeira Liga 2023	Arouca	0-0 (HT 0-0)	Estrela
28-12-2023	Portugal Primeira Liga 2023	Estrela	1-4 (HT 1-0)	Arouca

Competition		Date
Portugal Primeira Liga		19-04-2026
Arouca	- (HT -)	Estrela
Portugal Primeira Liga		07-12-2025
Estrela	- (HT -)	Arouca
Portugal Primeira Liga		19-04-2025
Arouca	1-0 (HT 0-0)	Estrela
Portugal Primeira Liga		09-12-2024
Estrela	2-1 (HT 0-1)	Arouca
Portugal Primeira Liga		05-05-2024
Arouca	0-0 (HT 0-0)	Estrela
Portugal Primeira Liga		28-12-2023
Estrela	1-4 (HT 1-0)	Arouca